Excel与SPSS在线性回归预测中的比较分析

线性回归分析是经济管理与预测的一个重要的量化分析方法。分别运用Excel与SPSS对同一实际问题进行线性回归分析,得出两种软件在线性回归预测问题上各有其优势,在经济管理的实际应用中无论选择那种软件都要了解其功能和操作的特点,有助于对实际问题恰当而且正确地分析与预测。     

DO PERCEPTIONS BECOME REALITY? THE MODERATING ROLE OF SUPPLY CHAIN RESILIENCY ON DISRUPTION OCCURRENCE

The concern and study of supply risk and supply continuity has recently come to the forefront in managing business and conducting research. This empirical study of U.S. and German firms investigates the relationship between perceived supply risk sources and supply disruption occurrence, as well as the use of supply chain resiliency practices to reduce disruption frequency. We demonstrate that supply managers' concerns with risk emanating from suppliers and the supply market are positively related to supply disruption occurrence. We further show how and when implementing flexibility and redundancy may reduce the effects of supply disruptions.     

The economic impacts of drought on the economy of Iran: An integration of linear programming and macroeconometric modelling approaches

In this paper, we provide economy-wide estimates of the costs of drought in the cropping sector of the Iranian economy, using a linear programming model to estimate the direct costs on agriculture, and a macroeconometric model to trace the indirect impacts on the rest of the economy. The results indicate that a severe drought such as the one that occurred in the crop year 1999-2000 imposes a direct cost of 1605 million USD, equivalent to 30.3% of the total value added of the cropping sector in Iran. This, in turn, leads to a 12.7% reduction in the value added of other agricultural sub-sectors (livestock, fisheries and forestry). In the rest of the economy, the manufacturing and service sectors experience value added declines of 7.8 and 3.7%, respectively. In addition, there is a substantial decrease in investment in the agricultural, manufacturing and service sectors. Thus, such a drought reduces overall GDP by about 4.4%, and it would also result in decreased non-oil exports, increased food imports, and a rise in inflation. The results of some drought mitigation simulations are reported in brief. Such estimates strengthen the case for increased attention to drought strategies and management in agriculture in Iran and elsewhere.     

高等学校在国家创新体系中的作用

高等学校是国家创新体系的重要组成部分,研究其在国家创新体系中的作用对于创建创新型国家和高校自身发展都具有积极意义。以高等学校获得国家科技奖励三大奖的成果数量为基础,运用相关性分析和回归分析方法,分别对高等学校在知识创新系统、技术创新系统、知识传播系统和知识应用系统中的作用进行了深入的分析。分析结果表明,高等学校在国家创新体系中发挥着重要的主体核心作用,且其影响力逐年增加。     

产业转移背景下生产性服务业发展影响因素分析

发展生产性服务业,以服务代替实物投入生产运营,是转变经济发展方式、优化产业结构的有效途径,是增加产品科技含量和附加值的关键所在。研究了当前产业区域转移背景下,影响湖南、广东生产性服务业发展的具体因素——城镇化水平、工业水平、开放度、市场化水平。通过建立自回归模型和对因素之间协调发展度的测量,发现城镇化和市场化对湖南省生产性服务业的促进作用最为显著,工业发展没有充分带动湖南省生产性服务业的增长,而开放程度和工业化在拉动广东省生产性服务业的过程中起了重要作用,各因素对广东省的拉动幅度和作用速度均强于湖南。     

科技园区企业科技投入与产出绩效关系的实证分析——以西安高新区为例

首先对国内外关于企业研发投入与产出绩效的最新成果进行了评述,然后以西安高新区内2 900家企业2007年研发投入与产出情况的数据为基础,对区内企业研发投入与产出绩效进行相关关系、偏相关关系以及回归分析。结果表明,区内企业研发投入与产出绩效之间存在明显的正相关关系,但企业的国有制性质和市场机制的不完善也对企业产出绩效产生了一些不利影响。最后,总结并提出了提高科技园区产出绩效的对策。     

跨国公司在我国研发投资的区位决定因素研究

基于我国数据运用逐步回归法进行分析,探寻影响跨国公司在我国加大研发投资力度的决定因素:经济发展水平、市场规模潜力、人力资源可得性、劳动力成本优势与知识产权保护力度等均为影响研发投资的决定因素。我国作为投资东道国应从以上方面优化投资环境,努力提高吸引研发投资的力度和效率,并为其它发展中国家东道国提供借鉴。     

网上零售影响社会物流发展的定量分析

通过多元线性回归等方法分析,在其他因素不变情况下,发现网上零售交易规模的边际社会物流需求大于零并且呈现递减规律,网上零售市场发展可促进高效率物流对低效率物流的替代作用。     

基于回归分析的中国电影票房影响因素研究

本文通过对国外文献的阅读和整理,并结合中国现实情况,选取了影响电影票房的四个因素,即电影类型、电影评分、演员号召力和电影产地。以从2003年至2012年(截止至4月8日)十年间中国电影票房年度排行榜上排名前十名的影片票房为因变量,以电影类型、电影评分、演员号召力和电影产地为自变量,通过逐步回归分析构建了影响电影票房因素的多元回归模型,并对回归结果予以分析和解释,以期对国内相对较为缺乏的电影产业实证研究有所助益,并就未来研究方向提出设想。     

Commentary to “From new-product development to commercialization through networks”

This commentary essay explores some broader implications of the article by Aarikka-Stenroos and Sandberg (in this issue) concerning two issues: the principal character of innovation processes and the delineation of networks. The article provides an interesting discussion on how firms can overcome the obstacles of successful commercialization of innovations by the utilization of various types of networks involving developers, producers and users alike. This commentary recognizes two problems in this setting: An overly linear view on innovation processes and NPD, and an overly simplistic view on the delineation of networks.